...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... As of 1:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 the center of Arthur was located near 28.9, -95.7 with movement NE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 000
WTNT31 KNHC 171753
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
100 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 95.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 95.7 West. Arthur is
moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). On the forecast
track, Arthur should move farther inland over southeastern Texas and
southwestern Louisiana through tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is anticipated as the low moves farther inland, and it
could dissipate by tonight or early Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42035 east of Galveston recently reported
a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust of 54 mph (86 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Arthur can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Arthur is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near 20
inches, through early Friday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast
east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and
the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to
life-threatening flash flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Arthur, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.
For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
with Arthur, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
today.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.
SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the
northwestern Gulf Coast for the next day or two. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents
TORNADO: A couple of tornadoes are possible through Thursday from
the Upper Texas Coast into southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama,
and the western Florida Panhandle.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Issued at 1630 UTC WED JUN 17 2026 000
WTNT21 KNHC 171630
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012026
1630 UTC WED JUN 17 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 95.5W AT 17/1630Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 95.5W AT 17/1630Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 96.1W
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 30.0N 94.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.9N 91.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 95.5W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 000
WTNT41 KNHC 171631
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Arthur Special Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
This special advisory is being issued to extend the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Upper Texas coast southward to Sargent, Texas.
Recent surface observations and NOAA buoy 42035 indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 40 kt, and the estimated minimum
pressure has fallen to 999 mb. No changes have been made to the
track or intensity forecasts. The regularly scheduled intermediate
advisory will be issued by 1800 UTC.
Previous Discussion:
The low pressure area near the Middle Texas coast has produced
sustained convection well to the east of its center this morning. A
1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak classification indicated enough convective
organization to designate the system as a sheared tropical cyclone.
Within the past hour or two, buoy observations and a ship report
have indicated tropical-storm-force winds occurring within this
convection. Additionally, Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters
investigating the storm found peak 850-mb flight-level winds up to
52 kt, which also suggest this system has reached tropical storm
intensity. Based on these findings, the system is designated as
Tropical Storm Arthur with an intensity of 35 kt.
Arthur is starting to accelerate northeastward (045/8 kt) within
strengthening southwesterly flow associated with a low- to mid-level
trough. There are no significant changes to the track forecast
reasoning, with a faster northeastward motion expected today that
will move the center of the system along or over the Texas coast
today and then farther inland over southeastern Texas and
southwestern Louisiana by tonight. With no major changes to the
track guidance this cycle, the updated NHC forecast is very similar
to the previous one.
Given the unrelenting westerly shear and Arthur's close proximity to
land, it seems unlikely that much additional strengthening will
occur. The tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the eastern
semicircle and mainly occurring over the offshore waters. Arthur
will likely maintain its intensity while it remains over water, and
then weaken by tonight once it moves inland. Global model fields
indicate it will open into a trough soon thereafter, and although a
24-h forecast point is included mainly for continuity purposes,
Arthur should dissipate before that time. There is still a signal in
the global models for low pressure development over the western
Atlantic late this week or this weekend as remnant vorticity from
Arthur emerge off the Southeast U.S. coast. The exact nature of this
low remains unclear, so we will continue to monitor model trends to
evaluate the potential for tropical cyclone formation.
Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding remain the
primary hazard with this system. Based on recent observations, the
Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward along the Upper
Texas coast to High Island.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding
are likely through Friday across southern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida
Panhandle, with possible flooding near the Upper Texas coast.
Ongoing heavy rainfall could prolong the flood threat into the
weekend.
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Upper Texas
and Louisiana coasts today from High Island to Morgan City where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of
the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1630Z 28.8N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 30.0N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 31.9N 91.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Issued at 1630 UTC WED JUN 17 2026 000
FONT11 KNHC 171630
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012026
1630 UTC WED JUN 17 2026
AT 1630Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAMERON LA 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GALVESTON TX 34 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
MATAGORDA TX 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PORT O CONNOR 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
Issued at 1127 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 000
WTNT61 KNHC 171627
TCUAT1
Tropical Storm Arthur Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1127 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY...
A special advisory for Tropical Storm Arthur will be issued shortly
to extend the Tropical Storm Warning southward to Sargent, Texas.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
